The common say: when we fail to plan, we have planned to fail, is no doubt a statement of fact. We live in a world full of hazards and risks which often result in emergencies when we fail to do the needful.
An Emergency we often see as a sudden, urgent and usually unexpected occurrence requiring prompt interventions. It often creates a state of need for help or relief, we have identifiable examples like financial emergency whereby the Naira has become a pack of papers worth nothing. Fire incidences like the recent Dosumu market inferno that consumed not less than 14 storey buildings and plunging its victims into austere conditions. Flood, Nigerian will not forget the 2022 flood in the country particularly the Lokoja, Kainji et al area where families were displaced as their homes were over-run by flood, travelers spent days on the road because the roads were flooded, farmland destroyed and a host of other negative impacts.Common types of emergencies are:
Severe Weather (Heat waves, Tornadoes, Thunderstorms, Hail), Fire, Hazardous Materials Accidents, Chemical/Biological/Radiological (CBR) Emergencies, Aircraft Crashes, National Emergency (War, Terrorism), Civil Disorder etc.
There is no nation of the world that is totally free from all of these disasters. The emergencies associated with climate change for instance, is global hence the call for all nations and individuals to team up and fight against climate change for sustainability. Though dome of the emergencies may be natural but often times man behaviours and relationship with nature induce their occurrence. The challenge is; are there no ways to checkmate these emergencies to be able to nip them in the bud. There is no doubt there are steps that though may not totally eliminate them but capable to reduce them to ALARP, (as low as reasonably practicable).
Mitigation involves structural and non-structural measures taken to limit the impact of disasters and emergencies. Structural mitigation actions change the characteristics of buildings or the environment; examples include; flood control projects, raising buildings elevations and clearing areas around structures.
Mitigation. Refers to measures that prevent an emergency, reduce the chance of an emergency happening, or reduce the damaging effects of unavoidable emergencies. Typical mitigation measures include; establishing building codes and zoning requirements, installing shutters and constructing barriers such as levees.
Basically, there are four common risk mitigation strategies which include: avoidance, reduction, transference and acceptance.
However, the use of advanced risks assessment can go a very long way in mitigating emergencies.
Risk assessment is the process of identifying hazards that could negatively affect an organization’s ability to conduct business. It determines possible mishaps, their likelihood and consequences, and the tolerances for such events.
There are four main steps in risk assessment
- Qualitative risk assessment.
- Quantitative risk assessment.
- Generic risk assessment.
- Site-specific risk assessment.
- Dynamic risk assessment
Risk assessment serves as the foundation upon which effective emergency plans are built, providing a comprehensive understanding of potential threats and vulnerabilities. It involves a systematic approach to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks associated with various emergency causing hazards that may disrupt normal operations.
By identifying potential risks and analyzing their impact on an organization, leaders can make informed choices that mitigate threats and capitalize on opportunities.
One key aspect of risk assessment is using tools and techniques to evaluate and prioritize risks using various methods, such as SWOT (Strenghts, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, scenario planning, and Monte Carlo simulation, to help businesses anticipate and manage uncertainties effectively.
Understanding complex risk factors and their interdependencies is crucial for effective decision-making and risk management in today’s interconnected world. Risk factors increase the likelihood of a negative outcome, while interdependencies refer to the relationships between these factors that can amplify or mitigate their impact. Organizations can better anticipate and respond to threats by analyzing these complex interactions.
It is important to note that recognizing the fact that that risks are rarely isolated events. Instead, they often arise from a combination of multiple factors that interact in unpredictable ways. Organizations can develop more comprehensive risk management strategies by identifying and analyzing these interconnected risk factors. There is need to understand risks and develop mitigations.
Multi-hazard risk assessment methodologies are crucial in disaster management to comprehensively evaluate the potential risks of various hazards affecting a given area, community or institution. Unlike single-hazard assessments, which focus on a specific type of hazard, such as floods, fire or earthquakes, multi-hazard assessments consider the interactions and cumulative impacts of multiple hazards, providing a more holistic understanding of risk.
The probabilistic Risk Assessment is very effective in this regard. It involves analyzing historical data, statistical models, and probabilistic models to estimate the likelihood of different hazards occurring within a specified time frame. By quantifying the probabilities of various hazard events, decision-makers can prioritize mitigation efforts and allocate adequate resources more effectively.
The scenario-based approach is another invaluable assessment. It involves developing hypothetical scenarios of potential hazard events based on scientific knowledge and expert judgment. These scenarios consider various combinations of hazards, their intensities, and their spatial and temporal distributions.
A 2023 review of causes of fire incidences in Government buildings in Nigeria revealed that the major causes of fire outbreaks are electrical-related issues, political-related issues, a low level of awareness of fire safety measures, the use of low-quality or substandard building materials, and carelessness or negligence The study suggested that to curb electrical-related, they must ensure the use of genuine cables, avoid overloading and illegal connections, and make adequate provision for routine electrical inspections. Also, security should be tightened around government buildings and Closed-Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras should be installed to curtail the activities of arsonists. Additionally, it should be mandatory for all who work in public buildings to receive training on fire disaster safety, first aid, and evacuation procedures. Doing this will guarantee that government buildings are adequately protected.
However, the challenge of non-compliance remains a great issue in the psyche of most Nigerians. Government at all levels and organisations, should undertake comprehensive risk assessment serious particularly for identified vulnerability to ensure that disasters like fire outbreaks, building collapse as well as flood, are followed up with mitigations procedures to forestall a complete failure.
For identified risks, there should be put in place some form of disaster or emergency plan that will engender prompt interventions when controls fail and which in turn enables early return to business after a disaster.
